October Surprise

The election is quickly coming upon us, the debates are almost over which means that it is time for the highly anticipated “October Surprise”. What surprise you might ask?? The October Surprise is political jargon describing something huge with the potential to influence the outcome of a Presidential election. It is so called because the presidential elections are held in early November, and therefore events that take place in late October have greater potential to swing votes. There have been a number of “surprises” in the past, which I will provide a brief reminder:

1968 Nixon vs. Humphrey
Citing progress with the Paris peace talks, U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson announced to the US on March 31, 1968 that he had ordered a stop of "all air, naval, and artillery bombardment of North Vietnam" above the 20th parallel. Since Johnson was not running for re-election, the race was between Humphrey and Nixon. The polls were indicating that Nixon was in the lead. Johnson announced on October 31 a complete bombing halt of North Vietnam, once again citing that progress had been made in the Paris negotiations. Johnson hoped that the Vietnam War would be officially over. With the war continuing, many liberal voters would not vote for Humphrey, and Nixon won by only 500,000 popular votes.

1972 Nixon vs. McGovern
With less than a month remaining until the election between incumbent president Richard Nixon and Democrat George McGovern, Nixon's Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, announced that "peace [was] at hand" in Vietnam. Nixon had guaranteed to end the unpopular Vietnam War four years earlier, but had failed. Nixon had essentially been assured an easy reelection victory against McGovern, but Kissinger's statement increased Nixon's already high standing with the public. Nixon defeated McGovern by a 20-point popular vote margin in one of the largest landslides in election history.

1980 Carter vs. Reagan
During the Iran hostage crisis, the Republican challenger Ronald Reagan feared a last-minute deal to release the hostages, which might earn incumbent Jimmy Carter enough votes to win re-election. Carter then announced that the hostages would not be released until after the election. Many accused Reagan of making a deal with Iran to not release the hostages till the inauguration, ensuring Carter’s loss.

1992 Clinton vs. Bush
Just four days before the vote that year, Ronald Reagan's defense secretary Caspar Weinberger was implicated in the Iran-Contra scandal. Republicans angrily accused Democrats of timing Weinberger's indictment to hurt George H.W. Bush's re-election chances, which it did.

2000 Gore vs. Bush
Just days before the November 7 election, a report that George W. Bush had been arrested for drunk driving in 1976 was released. This report was confirmed by Bush in a press conference moments after it was revealed. It did not work.

I could list others, like the Saddam Hussein verdict which came out just before the U.S. mid term elections which many thought was an attempt by the White House to influence the vote or the Oct 29, 2004, video where Bin Laden said “Your security does not lie in the hands of Kerry, Bush or al-Qaeda” which some say strengthened Bush and his anti terrorism stance.

So it happens, and it will happen soon. So my question is this? What will be the surprise? Will Bin Laden get captured? Will the stock market soar again? Will oil reserves be released? Will an exit plan for Iraq be revealed? Will Biden be dropped and Clinton added?? I for one can’t wait to see this play out?